2019 NFC SOUTH BETTING PREVIEW
By
Marc Lawrence
Welcome
to the 2019 NFC South division preview, with excerpts from the 2019 PLAYBOOK
Football Preview Guide magazine.
In
addition to the previews outlined below, these interesting scheduling
statistical notes merit consideration, compliments of the 2019 MTI Regular
Season NFL Win Report:
Atlanta
- Falcons ... will face zero opponents in 2019 with a bye next, a Thursday game
next, a Monday game next, and an opponent coming off a Monday night game this
season ... +1 net turnover in 2018 regular season.
Carolina
- Panthers will face 4 opponents in 2nd+ away games, and zero opponents coming
off a bye this season ... +1 net turnover in 2018 regular season.
New
Orleans - Saints had 8 double-digit regular-season wins last year ... will face
4 opponents in 2nd+ away games this season ... +8 net turnovers in 2018 regular
season.
Tampa
Bay - Buccaneers had only 1 double-digit win last year ... have played 'over'
regular-season win total in 1 of last 6 years ... -18 net turnovers in 2018
regular season.
Atlanta
Falcons
TEAM
THEME: IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR
Westgate
SuperBook Season Win Total: 8.5
Opponents'
Collective Season Win Total: 134.5
Looking
back, when Atlanta inked QB Matt Ryan to a league-record $150 million contract
extension in the offseason last year, it mirrored the path Detroit followed the
previous season when it signed QB Matthew Stafford to a $135 deal. Both teams
missed the playoffs, with the Falcons snapping a two-year playoff skein (which
reminds us to keep a pulse on Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks this
season.) It's no excuses this year for Atlanta this year, though, as Ryan finds
himself surrounded by a strike-force that could well be the league's most
dynamic trio in wide receivers Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Calvin
Ridley, not to mention TE Austin Hooper, a Pro Bowler last season. Suddenly,
protecting Ryan became priority-one for the Falcons when they proceeded to snap
up two offensive linemen in the first round of this year's draft. The schedule
is a bit of a paradox as Atlanta takes on 8 foes in its first nine games that
were either winning teams or in the playoffs last season. With it, 6 of its
last seven games to conclude the season will come against opponents that owned
losing records in 2018. As a result, should they fly right throughout the first
half of the campaign behind former OC Dirk Koetter, the Dirty Birds could be
back in postseason play.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: QB
Matt Ryan is 10-1 SUATS in home openers with the Falcons.
PLAY
ON: at
New Orleans (11/10)
INSIDE
THE STATS: The
Falcons are 12-22 SU and 10-24 ATS the L5Y in games where they were outgained.
Carolina
Panthers
TEAM
THEME: SUPERMAN ON THE LAM
Westgate
SuperBook Season Win Total: 8 (under -120)
Opponents'
Collective Season Win Total: 132.5
Suddenly,
Superman's cape is wearing thin. Cam Newton insists recovery from off-season
shoulder surgery has been "unbelievable." He says that he has regained full
strength in his arm. Newton's statement came after months of speculation that
his shoulder just wasn't right, and many observers questioned whether his
throwing shoulder, for which he had undergone surgery in 2017, would ever be
the same. At the start of the 2018 season, Newton claimed he felt better than
he had in years. He quickly guided his team to a 6-2 record. But the former
Heisman Trophy winner and league MVP struggled in the second half of the
season, often relying on backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke to throw Hail Mary
passes, and critics once again asked if his shoulder was healthy. Newton later
admitted he often struggled to throw the ball 30 yards down the field and the
Panthers shut down their franchise quarterback for the last two games of the
season. It's what happens when you suddenly turn old. Following a 7-9 campaign
last year, Carolina looked to get younger this offseason. For openers, they
turned to the AAF and signed six players. On the other side of the ball,
first-year DC Eric Washington struggled as the defense declined 30 YPG.
First-round pick Brian Burns is a stud and should help fill the gap at either
DE or LB. And the addition of DT Gerald McCoy should help a deep and athletic
defensive line. Finally, adding West Virginia QB Will Grier should provide
adequate insurance should Newton wear down again at season's end.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Carolina
is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS as a dog against foes coming off a SU underdog win under
head coach Ron Rivera.
PLAY
ON: vs.
Atlanta (11/17) - *KEY
INSIDE
THE STATS: The
Panthers are 24-10 ITS in their last 34 games outside the NFC South division.
New
Orleans Saints
TEAM
THEME: DAT'S WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT
Westgate
SuperBook Season Win Total: 10.5
Opponents'
Collective Season Win Total: 130
The
Saints made major strides in adding weapons for Drew Brees in what could be the
final push to get him back to the Super Bowl for the first time in 10 years
when they added TE Jared Cook. With WR Ted Ginn Jr. in a contract year, they
will combine with WR Michael Thomas to provide an aerial assault as good as any
in the league. Taylor comes off his finest season as a pro in 2018 with 125
catches for 1,045 yards and nine touchdowns. In addition, star RB Alvin Kamara
welcomes Latavius Murray in the backfield. With Pro Bowl C Max Unger now
retired, the Saints selected Erik McCoy with their first pick in the draft.
McCoy allowed just one sack in 39 starts at Texas A&M. The elephant in the
room is how much longer the 40-year old Brees can continue to perform at his
Hall of Fame level. The fact that he had a 74.4 completion percentage last season,
breaking his own record, puts those thoughts immediately to rest. No one in the
history of the NFL has come close to being that accurate. After
being one play away from the Super Bowl each of the past two seasons, and
playing with a chip on their shoulder that would rival Mount Kilimanjaro, the
Saints appear ready to go mountain climbing in 2019.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Saints are 33-13-1 ATS in games following consecutive SUATS wins under Sean
Payton, including 23-4-1 ATS against winning foes.
PLAY
ON: at
LA Rams (9/15) - *KEY
INSIDE
THE STATS: QB
Drew Brees has thrown for 4,000 or more yards in each of the last 13 seasons.
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers
TEAM
THEME: GETTING BACK ON TRACK
Westgate
SuperBook Season Win Total: 6.5 (under -120)
Opponents'
Collective Season Win Total: 132.5
After
the Bucs outyarded 10 of their 16 opponents last year - yet somehow finished
with a 5-11 record - new head coach Bruce Arians brings a 49-30-1 SU all-time
mark as an NFL head coach to Tampa Bay. Arians' forte is developing
quarterbacks, working his magic with Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, and
Carson Palmer. He was brought aboard with the hopes of resurrecting Jameis
Winston's career. The former Heisman Trophy winner is in the final year of his
contract and needs to show vast improvement to maintain his starting status in
this league. Meanwhile, the Bucs concentrated on repairing a leaking defense
that had taken a step backward each of the last three seasons when six of their
eight draft picks were on the defensive side of the ball. New DC Todd Bowles
comes over from the New York Jets where his body of work featured one of the best run defenses in the NFL, holding teams to just 4.0
yards per carry, the sixth-lowest figure in the NFL during that span. Bowles'
Jets defense also allowed opposing offenses to convert only 36.0 percent of
third downs, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Opposing passers also
completed just 60.6 percent of their throws against the Jets under Bowles, the
third-lowest mark in the NFL. If any team in this division should stumble, look
for the 'A' train to put Winston and the defense back on the right track.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: NFL
away teams in the first Thursday night game of the season (the Bucs this year)
are 1-15 SU and 2-10-4 ATS.
PLAY
ON: vs.
NY Giants (9/22)
INSIDE
THE STATS: The
Bucs have gone 6-18 ITS at home in division games the last 8 years.
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