Inside The Stats: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

A deeper dive into the stats on each game does.  See our review of the 2019 football season to date from a statistical perspective below.

INSIDE OUT STAT WINNERS

A total of 9 FBS teams won games but were outgained in the contest last week.  In addition, there were 4 more teams in the NFL that did the same thing. From top to bottom in total negative yardage they include:

South Carolina -171

Louisville -148

South Florida -139

Florida Atlantic -95

Miami Florida -61

Western Michigan - 55

Penn State - 48

Temple -36

Duke -06

Panthers - 139

Steelers -92

Jets -06

Cardinals -02

LEAKING OIL 

From our MIDWEEK ALERT statistical newsletter the following teams on this week's card are 'leaking oil'. In rotation order, these are favorites who have been outgained in each of their last three straight games.

• California
• Ohio University (again)
• Western Michigan
• Chiefs
• Titans

IN THE STATS

From our statistical sister publication, the MIDWEEK ALERT, we can chart the statistical progress of each team on a game-by-game weekly basis. We also like to weigh teams that are underdogs with both a better offense and a better defense.  We call them BODs. These are the BODs on this week's card:

• Coastal Carolina

• UTSA

• Tulane

• Chargers

• Ravens

INSIDE THE STATS

Once again from the MIDWEEK ALERT here are college football teams through six games of the season that are either 100% ITS (In The Stats) or 0% thus far this campaign:

College Football 100% - Alabama, Baylor, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Ohio State, Oklahoma, UAB, and Utah.

College Football 0% - Akron, Vanderbilt

WHAT YOU ARE UP AGAINST

• Bettors taking juice of -105 need to win 51.2% of their bets to profit long term
• Bettors taking juice of -110 need to win 52.4% of their bets to profit long term
• Bettors taking juice of -120 need to win 54.6% of their bets to profit long term
• Bettors taking juice of -130 need to win 56.5% of their bets to profit long term Back next week with an overview of next week's games.

The difference between betting at -105 and -130 is 5.3%, often times the difference between a winning season and a losing season.  Think about that.

Back next week with an overview of next week's card.


For more in Marc Lawrence click here.