2019 SUN BELT FOOTBALL BETTING
PREVIEW
By
Marc Lawrence
Bye
Bye Benson
Karl
Benson took over as the Sun Belt commissioner at a time of major transition and
uncertainty for the league eight years ago. Benson, 67, steps down this season
after witnessing tremendous growth of the league. Keith
Gill is its new commissioner. Gill most recently served as executive associate
commissioner of the Atlantic 10 Conference and played college football at Duke,
lettering as a running back from 1990-93. He is a past member of the NCAA
Football Rules Committee and the NCAA Division I Council.
Hitting
The Alleys
Meanwhile,
while building the league from the basement up, Benson has witnessed quite a
few benchmarks, including a total of 16 Sun Belt teams that have gone bowling
the past two seasons, the most in conference history. Those teams have gone
11-5 SU and 9-7 ATS in bowl games.
The
Sun Belt is 15-13 SU and 16-11-1 ATS as underdogs in bowl games, including 13-9
SU and 14-7-1 ATS with a winning record. FYI: seven SBC teams have
entered bowl games off a loss of 3 or more points. They went 6-1
SUATS - all as underdogs.
Note:
Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2019 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide
magazine on sale at newsstands nationwide. The numbers following each team name
represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with
the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning
quarterback. The RPR represents each team's overall, offensive and defensive
rankings in overall returning production experience.
2019
SUN BELT CONFERENCE PREVIEW
SUN
BELT EAST -
APPALACHIAN
STATE Off - *10/4 Def - 6/1
RPR: 22/5/77
TEAM
THEME: DRINK
THE KOOL-AID
After
seven seasons of success on the mountain, head coach Scott Satterfield accepted
an offer he couldn't refuse, leaving ASU for Louisville. It opened the door for
Eliah Drinkwitz, the offensive coordinator at NC State and Boise State the past
four years, and we'll drink to that. The 36-year old Drinkwitz is also out of
the Gus Malzahn coaching tree from his days at Arkansas State and Auburn. He
inherits a team top-heavy with returning experience, including the loop's QB
Zac Thomas and seven of his top eight wide receivers. In addition, new
defensive coordinator Ted Roof also brings plenty of experience to the staff
having served as DC at no less than seven various FBS schools.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Mountaineers have won 35 of their last 39 Sun Belt games.
PLAY
AGAINST: at
UL-Lafayette (10/9)
COASTAL
CAROLINA Off -
6/3 Def - 8/4 RPR:40/69/33
TEAM
THEME: MOVIN'
ON UP
Head
coach Joe Moglia has decided to hand the reins over to his assistant head coach
and offensive coordinator Jamey Chadwell and move up to Executive Director for
Football at Coastal Carolina, thus closing the books on a wild Wall Street
success story. Moglia, the former CEO of TD Ameritrade, never stood a chance to
see his dreams fulfilled as an FBS head coach when health issues sidelined him
in 2017, and a defensive collapse of massive proportions ultimately denied him
a winning season last year. The Roosters featured a total of 24 underclassmen
making starts in 2018, but top pass rusher Jeffrey Gunter transferred to
Syracuse, leaving 300-pound Clemson transfer Sterling Johnson to fill the gap.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Chanticleers are 1-7 SUATS at home in conference games since joining the Sun
Belt.
PLAY
AGAINST: vs.
Georgia State (10/12)
GEORGIA
SOUTHERN
Off - *7/3 Def - 7/2 RPR:
19/31/30
TEAM
THEME: 10
DOWN, 10 UP
The
'Georgia Power Company' is back... sort of. After two years of outages under
head coach Tyson Summers, the Eagles brought Chad Lunsford on permanently last
season and while the ground attack wasn't as explosive as past editions,
Georgia Southern finished seventh in the nation in rushing offense. Coupled
with the three games in which he was the interim coach in 2017, Lunsford's
squads are averaging 275.8 RYPG, which gets them closer to where they want to
be. A dramatic last-second win over Eastern Michigan in the Camellia Bowl
lifted them to 10 wins last year - a job well done for a team that lost 10
games the previous season. They will likely need to overcome an expected
regression to the mean in turnovers (+22 last season) in order to stay on the
same track.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Eagles are 37-11 SU at home the last eight years.
PLAY
ON: vs.
UL-Monroe (11/16)
GEORGIA
STATE Off -
*8/3 Def - 7/2 RPR: 28/35/32
TEAM
THEME: BACK
ON THE PROWL
Only
7 teams in the nation started fewer freshmen than did Georgia State last
season. That ultimately spoke to a dramatic downturn for the Panthers in 2018,
ruining an otherwise sterling debut by head coach Shawn Elliott the previous
year. The culprit was a defense that slipped more than 12 points and 100 yards
per game. With it, though, comes a unit returning loads of playing experience,
including starting QB Dan Ellington and five OL that have each started 19-plus
games. Every wide receiver, sans standout Penny Hart, is also back. With the
secondary also benefitting from the youth movement, look for Elliot's bad case
of sophomore blues to be just a blip in history.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: Since
becoming an FBS squad, the Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their third game of the
season.
PASS
TROY
Off - *7/4 Def
- 6/2 RPR: 41/83/24
TEAM
THEME: CASE
WELL STATED
With
the coaching changes at Troy this season, one thing is for certain: new Troy
head coach Chip Lindsey has 'Bama blood running through his veins. Born in the
state, he played football at North Alabama and joins the Trojans after being
the offensive coordinator at Auburn the past two seasons. He was also the QB
coach for Troy in 2010. And according to SB Nation, he is Troy's third coach in
30 years. He's filling some pretty big shoes as departed coach Neal Brown won
35 games in his four-year tenure, including triple-digit wins the last three.
However, Lindsey is also the benefactor of a fairly well-stocked cupboard. Some
things never change.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Trojans are 11-0 ATS in regular-season games following a SU favorite loss.
PASS
SUN
BELT WEST -
ARKANSAS
STATE Off - 6/3 Def -
7/2 RPR: 56/101/27
TEAM
THEME: MAD
AS HELL
After
winning five of six prior Sun Belt titles, and going 20-4 in conference play
under Blake Anderson, the Red Wolves have been forced to settle for
second-place in consecutive seasons the past two years. Oddly, they dominated
'In The Stats' in the last two seasons, outyarding foes an average of 104.5 YPG
while having only a 15-10 record to show for their efforts. To their credit,
the Red Wolves have scored 22 defensive TDs the last five years, while gaining
300 or more yards of total offense in 104 of their last 115 games. The starting
point this season is in having to face only 3 foes with a winning record from
2018.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Red Wolves are 47-15 SU and 41-21 ATS from Game Six out the last eight years.
PLAY
ON: vs.
Georgia Southern (11/23)
SOUTH
ALABAMA Off - 6/4 Def -
4/2 RPR: 123/114/104
TEAM
THEME: CONTINUITY
FOR A THOUSAND, ALEX
Much
to the chagrin of 2nd-year head coach Steve Campbell, the Jaguars will begin
the season with a different starting quarterback for the 6th straight year. It
goes hand-in-hand with the fact that South Alabama will be looking for its first
winning season since joining the ranks of the big boys in 2012. Safe to say
"continuity" is likely the answer to the Sun Belt edition of Final Jeopardy.
For what it's worth, Campbell enters the season with an overall record of
162-62, including a 63-32 mark at the NCAA level, in his 19-year career as a
college football coach. Playing with no cards, he'll get out of this... but it
will take time.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Jaguars are 1-10 SUATS all-time against opponents that are coming off a SU
underdog win.
PLAY
ON: vs.
UL-Lafayette (11/16)
TEXAS
STATE Off - *9/5 Def - 10/2
RPR: 3/18/5
TEAM
THEME: TIME
WILL TELL FOR SPAVITAL
New
head coach Jake Spavital is a former offensive coordinator and quarterback
coach with lots of offense in his DNA after having coached at West Virginia,
California, Texas A&M and Tulsa. He's worked with Gus Malzahn, Kevin
Sumlin, Dana Holgorsen, Kliff Kingsbury and Sonny Dykes. He also coached Johnny
Manziel in his Heisman Trophy season with the Aggies. The man can coach and
will surely jumpstart the Bobcats' dormant offense. In addition, Texas State is
bursting at the seams with returning starters and playing experience. With all
that experience, look for the 'Stat You Will Like' below to blow to smithereens
this season. He has a lot of work to do - one step at a time.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Bobcats are 8-36 'In The Stats' versus FBS foes the last four seasons.
PLAY
ON: vs.
Troy (11/16)
UL-LAFAYETTE
Off - 8/5 Def - 7/3
RPR: 50/70/60
TEAM
THEME: RAISING
THE BAR
After
playing UNDER its season win total in four of the previous five years behind
former head coach Mark Hudspeth, new head coach Billy Napier put his footprint
on the ULL program last year with a 7-win OVER performance. A former assistant
under Nick Sand and Dabo Swinney, during Napier's playing career he
quarterbacked Furman in his junior and senior years to two conference
championships and a trip to the 1-AA Championship Game. If his pedigree were
any better, he'd be selling breeding rights. To top if off, Napier signed one
of the best-recruiting classes ever in the Sun Belt this offseason. The Cajuns
just might be Ragin' this season.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: The
Cajuns are 8-0 SUATS as a single-digit dog against winning opponents.
PLAY
ON: vs.
Mississippi State (8/31)
UL-MONROE
Off - *8/5 Def - 8/4
RPR: 46/74/48
TEAM
THEME: STANDING
TALL
The
Warhawks were one of four 6-6 teams that failed to land a bowl bid last season.
A bitter season-ending loss to arch-rival UL-Lafayette sealed their fate when
they missed a 36-yard field goal on the final play of the game. It was a sad
ending for 19 seniors that made starts for ULM last season (only UAB and Middle
Tennessee with more). A saving grace, though, was a defense that stood its
ground, improving over 100 YPG. On the offensive front, a full array of wide
receivers and tight ends are back in 2019. Better yet, all five starting
offensive linemen return, having made 131 combined starts. It makes them the
sleeper team in the Sun Belt this season. And that's better than Viagra for
head coach Matt Viator.
STAT
YOU WILL LIKE: ULM
had been shut out 7 times in 8 previous seasons against Power Five conferences
before Viator... and none since.
PLAY
ON: at
UL-Lafayette (11/30)
For more in Marc Lawrence click here.